Everyone is quoting the Lighter x Robinhood pool wrong. It is 11 MILLION LIT TOKENS, not an $11M pool. At $3.29 that is $36.19M - and the distinction changes everything downstream.
Against 65,000 points/week over a ~6 month season (1.56M points), that is ~$23.20 per point. Stress-tested for price and season length, the honest range is $10-$35.
But here is the bit nobody applies: argue less about point value, optimise your COST per point. One trader: 18 points for $82 in spreads = $4.56/point. That is profitable even in the pessimistic case.
How to get there: 2x points via Robinhood Wallet, hedged delta-neutral on $0-fee Variational (code OMNIWEB3WIKI). Both legs zero fees, so holding is free. Optimal hold ~21 hours.
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